Expected Value Calculator
Calculate the theoretical return per ticket based on current jackpot size and prize tiers.
R50.0M
10 boards at R5 each
Expected Value
R4.18
per R5 ticket
Theoretical ROI
-16.3%
Negative EV
Breakeven Jackpot
R83.0M
for EV = ticket cost
Jackpot Odds
1 in 4,047,536
with 10 boards
Prize Tier Breakdown
| Division | Odds | Prize | EV contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 match (Jackpot) | 1 in 40,475,358 | R50.0M | R1.2353 |
| 5 + bonus | 1 in 73,762 | R100K | R1.3557 |
| 5 match | 1 in 14,752 | R5K | R0.3389 |
| 4 + bonus | 1 in 29,505 | R2K | R0.0678 |
| 4 match | 1 in 1,311 | R150.00 | R0.1144 |
| 3 + bonus | 1 in 983 | R100.00 | R0.1017 |
| 3 match | 1 in 67 | R50.00 | R0.7463 |
| 2 + bonus | 1 in 89 | R20.00 | R0.2247 |
| Total Expected Value | R4.1849 | ||
Important caveats: EV assumes sole jackpot winner. In practice, jackpot splitting among multiple winners reduces effective EV. For Lotto at RR83.0M or below, EV is negative. Tax implications vary. Variance is enormous — you would need millions of plays to converge on theoretical EV. Treat lottery tickets as entertainment spending, not investment.