Expected Value Calculator
Expected value (EV) is the theoretical average return per ticket across all possible outcomes, weighted by probability. Enter the current jackpot size and your budget to see whether a ticket is positive or negative EV at today's jackpot level — and exactly which prize tiers are contributing most to that return.
The breakeven jackpot is the jackpot size at which EV exactly equals the ticket cost. Below it, you're paying more than the theoretical return. Above it, the math technically favours buying — though real-world factors like jackpot splitting still apply.
Prize Tier Breakdown
| Division | Odds | Prize | EV contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 match (Jackpot) | 1 in 40,475,358 | R50.0M | R1.2353 |
| 5 + bonus | 1 in 73,762 | R100K | R1.3557 |
| 5 match | 1 in 14,752 | R5K | R0.3389 |
| 4 + bonus | 1 in 29,505 | R2K | R0.0678 |
| 4 match | 1 in 1,311 | R150.00 | R0.1144 |
| 3 + bonus | 1 in 983 | R100.00 | R0.1017 |
| 3 match | 1 in 67 | R50.00 | R0.7463 |
| 2 + bonus | 1 in 89 | R20.00 | R0.2247 |
| Total Expected Value | R4.1849 | ||
How expected value works for SA lottery tickets
Expected value is calculated by multiplying each prize by its probability of being won, then summing across all prize tiers. For a Lotto ticket at R5, the EV calculation adds the jackpot contribution (jackpot ÷ 40,475,358) to the Division 2 contribution (R100,000 ÷ 73,762) and so on down through all eight prize tiers.
At most jackpot sizes, SA lottery EV is negative — meaning you receive less in expected returns than the ticket costs. This is by design: lottery operators keep a percentage of ticket revenue for operational costs, good causes contributions, and profit. The National Lotteries Commission mandates that a fixed portion of SA ticket revenue goes to the National Lottery Distribution Trust Fund.
EV only becomes positive when the jackpot grows large enough to overcome the built-in house edge — the breakeven jackpot shown above. Even then, real-world EV is reduced by the possibility of splitting the jackpot with other winners who chose the same numbers. Our strategy guide explains how to reduce split risk by choosing less popular number combinations.
Odds and prize tiers are based on official ITHUBA prize structures. Fixed prize amounts may vary at ITHUBA's discretion; verify current prize tiers at nationallottery.co.za before making decisions based on this calculator.